The Heineken Cup mathematics
Sunday January 14 2007
Who needs what in Round SixIt's that time of year again, the time where clubs and fans of clubs all over Europe are feverishly looking at the other pools and setting out complex algorithms on the boardroom tables, with a handbook of Duckworth-Lewis probabilities and a copy of Boyle's Law and its applications ready to reference.
But for those not suitably equipped, here is our note-form guide for who has to do what next weekend to get into the Heineken Cup quarter-finals.
Firstly, four teams have definitely qualified. They are: Munster, Scarlets, Biarritz, Leinster
Then, there are those who are in with a chance. They are: Wasps, Castres, Sale, the Ospreys, Stade Français, Ospreys, Leicester, and Northampton.
Wasps need a bonus point in Castres next weekend, and if they can get that and prevent Castres getting a bonus point in victory, they will also top the group. If Wasps win in Castres, they may well get a home quarter-final.
Only if Castres beat Wasps by more than seven points and score four tries in the process while conceding less than four tries, will the French top the group. A win - with no bonus points for either team - will also be enough to send them through as pool winners IF they beat Wasps by more than ten points. However, a win of any kind for the French may be enough to send them through as a best runner-up with 19 points - they will need other results to go their way though, including bonus point-less defeats for Leicester and Northampton.
Leicester need a bonus point at Munster to get through - although if either Sale, the Ospreys, or Castres got a bonus point win it would go down to points difference (the Tigers have the upper hand there). A win may see them top the group, it would definitely have them through as a best runner-up.
After the draw between the Ospreys and Stade Français, Pool three is wide open. Stade Français ought to go through as pool winners with only the formality of beating Calvisano at home next week to complete.
The Ospreys need to win with a bonus point away at Sale to make sure. A win without a bonus point leaves them sweating on the results of Leicester and Castres - if Leicester suffer a big defeat and Castres fail to beat Wasps, the Ospreys will nick a runner-up spot.
The same scenario applies to Sale as for the Ospreys - although the Sharks are not guaranteed a spot if they get a bonus point win, a win of either kind will leave the Sharks needing Leicester and Castres to crash.
Northampton just need a bonus point to go through as a best runner-up, and a big win over Biarritz might see them top the group ... but that's highly unlikely.
Our predicted quarter-final line-up:
Biarritz v Leicester
Scarlets v Northampton
Munster v Stade Français
Leinster v Wasps