But this time is not an Italy cowering on the Capitoline. This is an Italy that has gone into Caledonia stern and wild and subdued the Picts, something the bold emperors of old never managed.

This is a confident Rome, no longer depending on an old farmer to save their bacon. There is a whole new spirit in Rome.

The Galles will come, they will be welcomed and they will be the beaten, if Italian enthusiasm has any say in the matter. For the Italian players this is a huge enrichment opportunity. The Italians have been promised oodles of lira as a realistic incentive this year - win two matches in the Six Nations and reach the quarter-finals of the World Cup. In a sense they are two matches from achieving that. If they beat Wales in Rome and Scotland at the World Cup riches could well be theirs - not quite the wealth of Caesar, Cicero or Crassus, but unheard of wealth for an Italian rugby player.

Wales have the incentive of pride. An Italian defeat would be swallowed up in the quicksand of soccer but for the Welsh there will be no place to hide if the Wooden Spoon nears inevitability - tough for players from a rugby-passionate nation. Oh, and there are other incentives like the World Cup and money.

There would have been a time when to think that Italy could beat Wales at rugby would warranted being certified, but it's happened before. It happened in Rome in 2003 and it was close to happening in Cardiff last year.

This year Wales have not looked like the Wales of old. True, they were manful against Ireland but then they lost that drab game against the Scots and then were laid to waste by France. Italy on the other hand have shown an upward trend. They started off apologetically against France, then had a great second half at Twickenham before walloping Scotland in Edinburgh. These two divergent graphs suggest a big win for Italy.

A lot depends on how their success gets to them. If it makes them confident they will do well. If it makes them overconfident, they could come a cropper. Surely they do not have victories enough to produce overconfidence. They know their pack can beat the Welsh pack. If their confidence then sets their backs running, this could be a cracker of a game, for, surely, the Welsh will want to run and they have the men to do it.

They have four men who can make the running thrilling - forceful Tom Shanklin and their speedy back three who have an eye for half a chance.

But have the Italians picked Ramiro Pez in the place of Andreas Scanavacca to try for subdue-and-penetrate with lots of kicking to relieve the mauling and the pick-'n-go?

Wales would win a goal-kicking contest even though Ramiro Pez has a good reputation as a kicker. Pez is a surprise choice ahead of Andreas Scanavacca who had a 100 per cent record against Scotland - seven out of seven. Stephen Jones is such a class kicker as well.

Players to Watch: Tom Shanklin (Wales) for his determination and Shane Williams (Wales) in the hope that he can again produce the dancing feet that made him famous. Mirco Bergamasco (Italy) who is so capable of producing a breath-stopping surprise. And will Ramiro Pez (Italy) do anything that Andrea Scanavacca could not do better?

Head to Head: Alessandro Troncon (Italy) against Dwayne Peel (Wales): The clever old head with lots of physical courage against the young man with so much skill and ability, cunning vs energy. To some Peel is the best scrumhalf in the world to many Troncon is, on recent form, the best scrumhalf in Europe. Troncon's second coming into international rugby has been a revelation. Also, the clash between Mauro Bergamasco (Italy) against Martyn Williams (Wales) - both men of commitment, Williams perhaps better to the ball, Bergamasco perhaps better with the ball, both fast men for loose forwards.

Prediction: Italy by more than five points.

Previous results:

2006: Draw 18-18 at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
2005: Wales won 38-8 at Stadio Flaminio, Rome
2004: Wales won 44-10 at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
2003: Wales won 27-15 at Bruce Stadium, Canberra
2003: Italy won 30-22 at Stadio Flaminio, Rome
2002: Wales won 44-20 at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
2001: Wales won 33-23 at Stadio Flaminio, Rome
2000: Wales won 47-16 at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
1999: Wales won 60-21 in Treviso
1998: Wales won 23-20 in Llanelli
1996: Wales won 31-22 at Olympic Stadium, Rome
1996: Wales won 31-26 at Cardiff Arms Park
1994: Wales won 29-19 at Cardiff Arms Park

Teams:

Italy: 15 Roland De Marigny, 14 Kaine Robertson, 13 Gonzalo Canale, 12 Mirco Bergamasco, 11 Matteo Pratichetti, 10 Ramiro Pez, 9 Alessandro Troncon, 8 Sergio Parisse, 7 Mauro Bergamasco, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Marco Bortolami (captain), 4 Santiago Dellapè, 3 Carlos Nieto, 2 Carlo Festuccia, 1 Andrea Lo Cicero.
Replacements: 16 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 17 Salvatore Perugini, 18 Fabio Staibano, 19 Valerio Bernabò, 20 Maurizio Zaffiri, 21 Paul Griffen, 22 Andrea Scanavacca.

Wales: 15 Kevin Morgan, 14 Mark Jones, 13 Tom Shanklin, 12 James Hook, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Dwayne Peel, 8 Ryan Jones, 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Alix Popham, 5 Alun Wynn Jones, 4 Ian Gough, 3 Chris Horsman, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Rhys Thomas, 17 Duncan Jones, 18 Adam Jones, 19 Brent Cockbain, 20 Jonathan Thomas, 21 Mike Phillips, 22 Gareth Thomas.

Date: 10 March 2007
Kick-off: 16.30
Venue: Stadio Flaminio, Rome
Expected weather conditions: Scattered cloud with a high of 14°C, dropping to 11°C with a northerly of 21 km/h freshening.
Referee: Chris White (England)
Touch judges: Wayne Barnes (England), Taizo Hirabayashi (Japan)
Television match official: Geoff Warren (England)
Assessor: Douglas Kerr (Scotland)